I give your chances 1 in 20.

The purpose of probation is so that the state can keep an eye on a criminal without paying for that criminal's upkeep.

If they can't maintain that contact and, more importantly, do not feel it realistic to take the person back into custody if the probation is violated, they will probably not grant it.

States are not big fans of letting criminals go to other countries that make extradiction difficult and costly.