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  1. #31
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    Nov 2017
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    Default Re: New Guidelines for Expert Witnesses in State Courts

    Thank you for trading ideas but your spam remark was uncalled for. I came here to solve the Daubert riddle.

    I hope that others will take the time to offer constructive assistance.

  2. #32
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    Jan 2006
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    Default Re: New Guidelines for Expert Witnesses in State Courts

    Quote Quoting Kowalski
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    Thank you for trading ideas but your spam remark was uncalled for. I came here to solve the Daubert riddle.

    I hope that others will take the time to offer constructive assistance.
    Have you removed the link? Have you redacted the name of your company? You sure were cautious to redact the name when you posted the kudos letter.


    and speaking of that letter:


    if your customer wanted to praise you they wouldn’t have said what they did.

    I am remiss in thanking you.


    It would be

    i am remiss in NOT thanking you.

    As written, her statement says:

    I am in error in thanking you.


    Well, that sure puts a different, sarcastic, spin on her statement. Now it sounds like she is mocking you.


    It also doesn’t sound like what a real customer would write. It sounds a lot like what the owner of a company would write and post on their website under a fictitious name. It happens every day and your letter is textbook self congratulatory.

    But what riddle?



    Your method was shot down by people much more knowledgeable than myself. I’m not sure there really is anything else to say. You have been told your methodology doesn’t meet the Daubert test. There is no riddle. You have to step up your game to meet the test.


    oh, and the thank you letter serves absolutely no purpose other than as an advertisement. It does not address any legal issue, especially the Daubert test which you have just stated is your purpose here. Why you even posted it was curious, at least until the rock dropped on my head and i realized this was meant to advertise for your company.

  3. #33
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    Sep 2010
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    19,047

    Default Re: New Guidelines for Expert Witnesses in State Courts

    Understand your testimonials even if they were real MEAN SQUAT when it comes to validating things by Daubert or Frye or any other standards. They're nothing more than unscientfiic hearsay. They don't purport to show scientific accuracy of your expert testimony. You need hard data that shows your appraisal methodology matches reality. Jk and TM have both pointed out holes in your alleged justification.

  4. #34
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    Nov 2017
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    Default Re: New Guidelines for Expert Witnesses in State Courts

    Quote Quoting flyingron
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    Understand your testimonials even if they were real MEAN SQUAT when it comes to validating things by Daubert or Frye or any other standards. They're nothing more than unscientfiic hearsay. They don't purport to show scientific accuracy of your expert testimony. You need hard data that shows your appraisal methodology matches reality. Jk and TM have both pointed out holes in your alleged justification.
    Scientific accuracy explains everything. I, of course, believe that my methodology is scientifically accurate beyond a doubt. My task is to prove it by either peer review or through articles I have written.

    In Friday's deposition, the plaintiff attorney was worried about my answering the defense attorney's question about how I came to use this methodology, I told him that I created it. No big invention, obviously - calling sales managers and dialoguing with them - but a concern now that we have Daubert because my answer indicated that mine could not be considered an established methodology. I am working seven days a week and don't have time to keep up with what other appraisers are doing.But since the deposition three days ago I have been cutting and pasting Daubert material, trying to obtain knowledge via forums, etc. and, of great interest, have found one competitor who has adopted my methodology, I hope that may also help to establish that it is valid.

    Thank you.

  5. #35
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    Default Re: New Guidelines for Expert Witnesses in State Courts

    Quote Quoting Kowalski
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    Scientific accuracy explains everything. I, of course, believe that my methodology is scientifically accurate beyond a doubt. My task is to prove it by either peer review or through articles I have written.
    .


    As the meme says:


    That’s not how this works
    thats not how any of this works.


    I will give you a hint: I and I believe don’t belong in your proofs. This isn’t about you or what you believe. It’s about the subject and what you can support. Any time you find yourself trying to support your methods with your opinion, look in the mirror and say: stop that. My opinion is not support of my opinion.


    another hint: your means of obtaining value is not dependable nor supportable. It’s a fricken’n off the cuff number some guy you call gives you. Support means exactly that. Constantly referring to your source is not support. Evidence the numbers you get are dependable (like in real world provable) is support.

    Another hint: using your articles to support your arguments makes for a silly circular argument of narcissism and over inflated ego. You can’t depend on your statements to support your statements.



    The more you write and the the more I read about your company I have to wonder how you’ve gotten this far. Everything you say everywhere is nothing more than a veiled advertisement and an unsupported claim your method provides an accurate result. If it provides an accurate result, you will be able to back that up with real world numbers (calling the guys selling cars and asking them for an off the cuff number is NOT valid support). Nowhere have I seen you even make a claim there is anything to actually prove your numbers are accurate.

    And to pass daubert muster you will have to be able to do that.

  6. #36
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    Oct 2014
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    7,292

    Default Re: New Guidelines for Expert Witnesses in State Courts

    Quote Quoting jk
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    In fact, sitting on it actually tends to cause a lower price. A smart buyer is aware of how long itís been sitting around which is indicative of it being over priced. Then the haggling starts.
    Exactly right. Some years ago I wanted to buy a used VW Golf from a VW dealership. The blue book value of the car as equipped was about $4,500. I offered $4,400 for it paying cash. The salesperson said no, he couldn't do that and got his manager out to discuss it. The manager told me "we can't sell it for that, we gave $7,000 trade in value for it." Out of curiosity, I asked to see the actual deal sheet for the sale to see if that was true. They let me look at it. It was true, but they did it because they got the buyer to overpay on the price of the new car, on the financing, and upselling a bunch of services and products the buyer really didn't need. I told the manager, politely I hope, that what they gave in trade wasn't a good indicator for the real value of the car and if they gave too much that wasn't my problem. And I walked out. I drove by that dealer a couple times a week in my work, and saw the car just sitting there. After two months I walked in again and said I'd give them $4,400 for it cash on the spot. They couldn't hurry fast enough to pull out the paperwork and complete the sale. The car wasn't worth the $7,000 trade value the dealer gave the buyer. It was worth only $4,400 ó what an unrelated buyer (me) was willing to pay for it.

    And that is an example of why I believe the OP's method is flawed. The trade value the dealer gives is not a reflection of just what the car is worth; it is also affected by the other terms of the sale the dealer is making ó the price of the other car being sold, any additional services/products sold, the terms of the financing, manufacturer incentives, etc. All those things distort the trade in value. A good FMV price is one where the deal is a cash price for just that car; not a value given as part of a deal in some other transaction.

  7. #37
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    Default Re: New Guidelines for Expert Witnesses in State Courts

    It would be ideal if there were a database (other than auto auction results) showing car sales data that included repaired and non-repaired cars. There isn't. Using auction results provides a window into how much previously repaired cars sold for vs. non-accident cars but that is also something that won't approximate what happens to you and I in the real world.

    You're correct in pointing out all of the various configurations that might occur in a trade-in. I just want a simple approximation of what the car will typically lose because of its particular repair history that is both unbiased and fair. Once I obtain six of them, I feel that I am on firm ground.

  8. #38
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    Default Re: New Guidelines for Expert Witnesses in State Courts

    And still you don’t listen

    off to the wolves you go. I can’t make a blind man see.

  9. #39
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    Oct 2014
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    Default Re: New Guidelines for Expert Witnesses in State Courts

    Quote Quoting Kowalski
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    I just want a simple approximation of what the car will typically lose because of its particular repair history that is both unbiased and fair. Once I obtain six of them, I feel that I am on firm ground.
    If the methodology is flawed then it won't matter how many dealers you contact because the results won't be reliable. That's the problem. If the methodology was sound, then I agree it would be important to get more than one data point to make sure that you aren't just getting an outlier.

    In order to really determine if you methodology was sound, you'd need to do a proper statistical study. You'd need the help of experts to ensure that the study done was sound. It would be something along the lines of contacting a randomly selected statistically relevant sample size of car dealers across the country and getting all their sales data involving trade-ins and then comparing the value they gave for the trade-in versus what they actually sold the car for. If the trade-in value consistently matched what the car sold for then you could have confidence that the trade-in values were an appropriate measure of the value of the car. But if they don't mach up consistently then the method doesn't work. Based on my experience I suspect what you'd find is that they don't match up very well. Either way you'd then want the results reviewed by experts in that field to ensure that your study method was good and the results were sound if you wanted to add to the scientific knowledge of how good valuations are done.

    Simply making up a method and saying you don't know of any better way to do it won't make it good enough to be admissible under Daubert.

  10. #40
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    Default Re: New Guidelines for Expert Witnesses in State Courts

    In certain fields, experience is the predominant basis for a great deal of reliable expert testimony. Under Daubert, that probably wouldn't suffice.

    You've confirmed my suspicions but I don't believe I'm capable of conducting a statistical study such as you described.

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