Quote Quoting johnbrown
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The unfortunate part is such a person could already have a permit, and various, important future plans/occupation being pursued could hang on whether renewal in a few years gets denied.
Well, then that's going to be the hard part. Nobody here or anyone else knows what will transpire a few years down the road. Nobody can predict that.

Not much any of us can do to ease your mind. Your friend will have to find out when they find out. It is honestly too soon to know.