Quote Quoting DupedOnOffer
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Thanks all. Not what I was hoping to hear, but thanks nonetheless.

Just one more scenario (I think). I'm a little more than halfway to the year mark, but as jack suggested, I've absolutely been looking elsewhere to make sure I have a chair when the music stops. Say I get an offer and the offerer is (understandably) unwilling to wait until mid-Sept to let me start. If I go to my people and say "Look, this hasn't worked out the way any of us expected, and given that you dont know whether you have a place in our new company, let alone whether I will (or whether you'll have any say in the matter), I've found a new job and would like to released from our agreement without penalty." If they say no and I have to decline an offer, and then later (when the offer is no longer on the table) I'm laid off, would I have any recourse? (I.e., could I go after damages and what would the likelihood of success be?)
You can certainly ASK for the relo to be forgiven but if the employer says no and you don't take the other job you won't have any recourse if they fire you later.

They'll make damned sure that it's due to well documented performance issues.

Sorry, but there's no way you win this.

If you find a job that pays a lot more money you'll be able to afford to pay back the relo if you quit.

Otherwise wait until July or August to start looking.

Just don't get into any more relo or signing bonus deals that require payback.