Obviously Wal-mart has security cameras,
I have been in a Walmart security room where they maintain their DVRs. Yes, the have security cameras. They have a LOT of security cameras.

Should I expect the police to show up at my door,
there is just no way to give you an answer. If they got your license plate, you may have a visit from the police. If they didn't, you probably got away with it.

and if they do, will I be booked at the jail, or just cited and told to go to court?
They would first have to identify you as the suspect. Just because it was your car doesn't mean it was you shoplifting. They will have to obtain a picture of you and the people at Walmart would have to identify you. If they can, then it is likely a warrant will be issued and the next time they come knocking, it would likely be for an arrest.