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Consider playing Russian Roulette for a moment. There are two ways this can play out mathematically based on only the knowledge of how many chambers there are in the revolver, and whether an actual live bullet is in one.
So, you know there are five chambers in the cylinder. And you know there is a live bullet in one of them.
So you put it up to your head and fire once, nothing happens. There was a 1/5 chance that you could have been shot.
Now, you're asked to do it again, so you do. Nothing happens. Your chance for just that attempt, was of course, 1/5. But that only holds if you ignore what you already knew - that the previous chamber in the cylinder was also empty, meaning that the bullet must be in one of the four remaining chambers. So, your actual probability of shooting yourself that attempt was 2/5.
So, you do this again with the individual chance of the bullet being in that chamber - assuming you knew nothing else - is 1/5. Except that we can discount the first two chambers meaning your actual chance of being shot is 1/3, if you knew only that there were three chambers, one of which had a bullet. But you don't know that only; you know that there are five chambers, two of which must be empty. So your odds of shooting yourself in the head are 3/5.
Now you do it again, with an actual probability of shooting yourself of 4/5. You live, again.
So, you're at the last chamber. Now you'll have to argue that doing it the fifth time is just as safe as doing it the first then pull the trigger. Of course, this time you're dead.
So your assertion is that drunk driver is three times as likely to hit someone his third time drunk behind the wheel than his first time and guaranteed to hit someone his sixth?
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The individual chance of a selected drunk driver killing someone on a selected trip of drunk driving isn't that high. But we aren't dealing in a world where there's just this one guy running around doing consecutive trials. We live in a world where there are thousands of drunk drivers doing simultaneous trials; some of them are going to kill someone. A little over 30 times a day this event which isn't highly likely considering only one drunk driver happens. Of course, we're only talking about those collisions in which someone is killed; this says nothing of the tens of thousands of more people a year who are forever handicapped by drunk drivers.
That's true, but in the aggregate, drunk drivers will probably spend more than thirty lifetimes in prison because of sentences handed down today alone- though I am basing this off of NY State laws. (I would argue that if 5-10 people killed were drunk drivers themselves, they should be spending closer to 25 lifetimes in prison).