What Will Happen if You're Caught Shoplifting Cosmetics, but the Police Aren't Called

My question involves criminal law for the state of: California
I have a friend who was recently caught shoplifting at Ulta Beauty. She bought an item and concealed items under her clothes. She walked out of the store and an manager/employee, she's not quite sure who it was that confronted her. The manager/employee asked if she would like to pay for the item she has stolen and concealed, she responded back saying "what" pretending she didn't hear what the manager/employee said. The manager/employee stated that they have her on camera concealing the stolen item and that this isn't the first time they've seen her do it. Manager/employee then told her that they took a picture of her drivers license plate and said that she's not welcomed at this Ulta or any other Ulta anymore. They will be sending her picture and license plate to nearby Ulta's.

They let my friend go, she was not detained or taken to the back room or had to sign any papers, and no police were called. Will she have to pay any civil demands or go to court? Has a file or case been made about her? Will she be prosecuted for this or charged? If she is charged how soon will she be charged? What are the actions she needs to take? Will the police arrest her or file a warrant? Will they show up at her work? Please help.

She has had no prior charges of shoplifting. The item that was stolen was worth less than $50. The prior times she has stolen things the items were less than $50 as well.

While it's possible they make a delayed complaint to the police, if they didn't pursue it immediately upon catching her, they aren't likely to do so.
What she can count on is Ulta's "lawyers" sending her a letter demanding restitution for her criminal actions. Civil demands go directly to the business. A court is only involved if the store decides to pursue the claim if she doesn't pay it voluntarily.

It's also possible they put her information into a database of known thieves that will bode poorly for her if caught again and will likely disqualify her for employment in any store that subscribes to the database.

What she should do:

1. STOP STEALING. Apparently not very good at it and chances are people are watching. Leniency is not likely to continue forever.
2. STAY OUT OF ULTA. She is now well known to them and if they even see her walking into a store, she has committed a crime and they can have the police come and arrest her and she will get prosecuted and have a criminal record.
3. IF CONTACTED BY THE POLICE OR PROSECUTOR, decline to speak to them without an attorney. An attorney will recommend she not speak to them at all. If actually arrested or charged, get an attorney before doing anything else.

They have her license plate and picture on file, could they file the report to the police later on and press charges?

So if Ulta handed the record of the incident to the police, there's no way for the police to track her down in the future with the video footage from yesterday and the prior footages as evidence and prosecute or arrest her for this?

If there was no police involvement initially, can Ulta involve them say tomorrow or in the next few weeks if they want to press charges?

Yes they can make a report to the police and based on what you have said, your friend could be charged and convicted.

If the license plate is registered to your friend, its simple for the police to look up the tag number and get name and address for your friend.

Simply put, your friend will just have to wait and see if anything happens.

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Quoting vjnn

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They have her license plate and picture on file, could they file the report to the police later on and press charges?

So if Ulta handed the record of the incident to the police, there's no way for the police to track her down in the future with the video footage from yesterday and the prior footages as evidence and prosecute or arrest her for this?

If there was no police involvement initially, can Ulta involve them say tomorrow or in the next few weeks if they want to press charges?

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They have a picture of her license and a video of her stealing, so, yes, they can report it to the police and pursue prosecution. The cops can find her since they have her name and her date of birth and her address.

As I told you elsewhere, let your friend deal with her own legal problems - some jail time might convince her to stop stealing from others.

You seem to be enabling her by saying "it was less than $50" - so what? She's a criminal.