Modifying Custody in a Contested Case

My question involves a child custody case from the State of: North Dakota. I am scheduled to go to court in august for a hotly contested modification of custody. I filed this almost a year ago. I'd like to think I have a solid case against my ex. I am seeking full custody of our child with him getting every other weekend. Right now he has her 60% of the time but I hired a private investigator to document things that I've discovered through my daughter talking to me. Including being left home alone past midnight, belittling me, not being brought to the dr or dentist (ever), not feeding her enough etc. If the judge determined I had a Prima Facie case, what is the likelihood that custody will be modified? My lawyer says I've got this but I also was told not to believe my lawyer in terms of "sure things". The judge has seen is 4 times in the last year. Settlement of custody outside of court, two contempt hearings (one I won and the second I lost but was given this court date to modify custody). Seriously, what is typically the outcome for these cases? I have great documentation, great witnesses and affidavits. Please help me ease my mind. I'm not looking for a yes you're going to win but I'm looking for a typically this happens:

There is no way to know. Frankly, depending on the age of your daughter, I'm not sure you really have a whole lot based on what you wrote.

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Quoting Sonatacallie

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Including being left home alone past midnight....

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How often? For what reason? With the last event occurring how long ago? How old is the child?

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Quoting Sonatacallie

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...belittling me...

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In front of the child?

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Quoting Sonatacallie

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....not being brought to the dr or dentist (ever)...

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You have custody 40% of the time. Have you ever taken the child to a doctor or dentist? If not, how do you distinguish your failure from his? If so, how are her needs being neglected?

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Quoting Sonatacallie

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...not feeding her enough...

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That's pretty nebulous. Has a doctor diagnosed her as underweight? Malnourished?

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Quoting Sonatacallie

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If the judge determined I had a Prima Facie case, what is the likelihood that custody will be modified?

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We lack the facts to evaluate your case.

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Quoting Sonatacallie

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My lawyer says I've got this but I also was told not to believe my lawyer in terms of "sure things".

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Your skepticism is understandable, but we're not in a position to second-guess your lawyer. Your lawyer knows the case, while we do not.

If this case ends up going to hearing, you will present your evidence and witnesses, your ex- will present his, and ultimately the judge will try to decide what outcome is in the child's best interest.