Charged With Felony Theft Over $1000

My question involves criminal law for the state of: Tennessee

My question is in regards to a felony case with a charge of theft over $1000. The company where the theft occurred had a video surveillance camera that covered a portion of the property. The video shows the accused pulling into the parking lot of the company but the area where accused parks is out of the camera viewing area. So basically it just shows a car pulling into the fenced in parking lot and then going out of sight but still within the fenced lot. The parking lot is a general construction work lot which has small hand tools and other various construction items. It shows the accused going through several items in the lot and then putting a few items in a bucket. The accused walks through the parking lot to the aforementioned area that is out of camera view. The surveillance video does not show anything being loaded into a vehicle nor anyone walking out of the lot with items in hand. The next thing shown in the video is a car pulling out of the parking lot. The video does not have date or time stamping and the quality is mediocre due to the camera’s proximity in relation to the crime scene plus it was nighttime. The state was supplied a list of items that the company reported stolen however in the video, you can't see exactly what the accused has in hand so the smaller items cannot be seen and the larger items listed do not appear in the video at all. For example, the company accused the defendant of stealing an air compressor that does not appear in the video at all. They said that the compressor was sitting in an area that’s off camera. The state has offered a plea deal for probation as well as paying restitution for all the items reported stolen, including the listed items that do not appear on video.

My questions are as follows:
1.) Does there a decent chance of winning his case since it does not show any items being loaded into the vehicle nor any of the items reported stolen leaving the lot?
2.) Would it not be considered pure speculation as to what the accused did with the items after leaving the camera viewing angle?
3.) Also how can the state charge the accused of stealing items that aren’t even shown on video? Doesn’t the state have to prove that each of the item’s reported stolen were actually stolen or is that not correct?
4.) If a plea wanted to be reached, can the defense renegotiate for the restitution to only include the items shown on video or does even matter if they appear on video or not?
5.) Based on what I’ve described the video showing, what is the best defense strategy in this case?

I really appreciate you taking the time to review my question. Please let me know if something doesn’t make sense to you or if you need further information about something.

1. I am not an attorney, but it doesn't look good for the defendant.
2. They were there before he got there, but gone after he left. I don't find that speculative. (except as in the case of there is chocolate all over your toddler's face and a chocolate cake is missing...what happened to it? Hmmm...)
3. So the argument isn't that he's not a thief, but rather the magnitude of the theft? I suppose there is an argument to be made there.
4. You'd have to ask your attorney. The problem is, if everything went missing on that particular night, and you (or whoever is in the video) is the only one that was there that night (per video evidence) it follows that the person in the video is the likely culprit.
5. Follow your attorney's advice.

Thanks for the reply. Your comment in regards to the defense being able to argue the magnitude of the theft was what I was looking for. Thanks again.